Over the past half century, ``climate'', more precisely global mean surface
temperature, has risen 0.84 degrees C according to many millions of
measurements made at the surface.
You can check the detailed numbers yourself at WoodForTrees.org.
If we go
much further back we can make out a cycle of about 20 or 21
years by fitting one trend line per decade or so.
This explains the so-called ``hiatus'' during the first decade of this century
along with the subsequent very steep rise during this decade.
The CO2 "hockey stick" since 1000 CE: Observed (blue) and modeled (green)
The three principal natural influences (red, green, purple) on
The residual surface temperature (RST, blue) compared with human
radiative forcing (HRF, red)
ECO2/280 reduces emitted ppm to multiples of preindustrial CO2.
45% of that is what remains in the atmosphere after the surface absorbs 55%.
(NB: Surface absorption is reduced by deforestation and other land
That plus 1 (preindustrial CO2) is expected total atmospheric CO2
based on emitted CO2 since 1860.
log base 2 of that is radiative forcing assuming Climate Sensitivity CS = 1.
Atmospheric CO2 as a function of accumulated emissions since 1900.
63-year climate is best modeled by Radiative Forcing (log2(CO2)) and
Absorbed Solar Insolation (ASI = TSI*0.7) together!
Troposphere structure as a function of latitude, and induced tradewinds.
Miscellaneous unlabeled plots and other images