With the exception of sea surface temperature, climate since 1970
has risen 0.8 degrees C according to both measurements made at the
surface and by satellite.
If we go
much further back we can make out a cycle of about 20 or 21
years by fitting one trend line per decade or so.
This explains the hiatus during the first decade of this century
along with the subsequent very steep rise during this decade.
The CO2 "hockey stick" since 1000 CE: Observed (blue) and modeled (green)
The three principal natural influences (red, green, purple) on
The residual surface temperature (RST, blue) compared with human
radiative forcing (HRF, red)
ECO2/280 reduces emitted ppm to multiples of preindustrial CO2.
45% of that is what remains in the atmosphere after the surface absorbs 55%.
(NB: Surface absorption is reduced by deforestation and other land
That plus 1 (preindustrial CO2) is expected total atmospheric CO2
based on emitted CO2 since 1860.
log base 2 of that is radiative forcing assuming Climate Sensitivity CS = 1.
Atmospheric CO2 as a function of accumulated emissions since 1900.
63-year climate is best modeled by Radiative Forcing (log2(CO2)) and
Absorbed Solar Insolation (ASI = TSI*0.7) together!
Troposphere structure as a function of latitude, and induced tradewinds.
Miscellaneous unlabeled plots and other images